Census: Valley cities among fastest growing
by Katherine Greene - Jul. 1, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic


Until last July, Valley cities were among the fastest growing in the country even as the housing bubble was starting to burst, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Between July 2007 and July 2008, Phoenix's population grew 2.2 percent to 1,567,924, its biggest jump since 2006. It added 33,184 residents last year - more than any other U.S. city except New York, the bureau estimated.

In terms of percentage growth during the same time period, the bureau estimates that Gilbert ranked fourth with a 5 percent gain, or about 10,283 people.
An increase in population doesn't necessarily mean people are moving here, said Bill Schoolings, Arizona's demographer. A portion of the increase can be attributed to more births than deaths - a phenomenon called the net natural increase, he said.

"That's not a huge shift," Schoolings said. "Things are happening as we speak with the economy and with the housing situation and not all of that may be fully reflected in the estimates."

The estimates drew skepticism from Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Arizona's younger population means more people are having children, and that may be boosting the population more than migration in this recession, he said.

"There's a sense that the population count isn't as great as we thought it was going to be," he said.

Butler pointed out that some Valley schools aren't as full as predicted, and housing-permit numbers were misleading during the boom.

It left the impression that people were moving here, when in reality many of those houses were built by out-of-state investors, Butler said.

"There's a lot more to look at," he said.

The Census Bureau's annual estimates on population changes for U.S. states and municipalities cover a July-to-July span.

In that period, Arizona's population ticked up 2.3 percent to 6.5 million, the lowest increase this decade. Other Valley cities showed smaller increases as well.

Mesa's population grew by fewer than 4,000. Glendale added only 1,125.

Scottsdale added 2,287, or just less than 1 percent.

Gilbert's increase was modest compared with annual increases in previous years.

Gilbert grew faster in the past eight years than all U.S. cities except McKinney, Texas.

Gilbert nearly doubled its population between 2000 and 2008, adding 99,161 people.

Arizona saw its greatest growth this decade between July 2004 and July 2005, according to the data, when the population grew 3.7 percent.

The Census Bureau physically counts people living in America every 10 years.

Once that count occurs next year, people will have a more accurate idea of how much Arizona has grown since 2000, Butler said.

Slow or not, the growth is welcome, said Barry Broome, chief executive officer of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council.

"Growth is always a positive sign," he said. "It's an indicator that you're doing things right."

Cities that are growing signal youth and sustainability to potential residents and businesses, he said.

When cities are frequently at the top of growth lists, as Phoenix and Gilbert have been, it helps those municipalities lure revenue-boosting businesses.

"People are going to look at us as a region going in the right direction," he said, citing the semiconductor, aerospace, and solar and renewable energy fields.


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